The Clash of Civilizations

Sometimes the state of the world is anything but clear. Back in the day when history was a clash between capitalism and communism, things were far clearer. Thus, many people would be happy to return to those halcyon days, where good was battling against evil and where we knew that we were on the side of good.

As you know, capitalism ultimately prevailed over Communism, only to face another foe, called Islamist terrorism. One hesitates to say that Islam is now competing against Western capitalism, because, as Bernard Lewis wrote persuasively, Islam has been in decline for a millennium. 

As we see in the Middle East and as we saw in New York City over two decades ago, the Islamist way of competing does not involve building anything; it involves destroying what others have built. Hamas is not alone in this effort.

In fairness, some Muslim leaders have been working to reform and modernize their nations. Leading that effort is the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohamed bin Salman. Other Muslim countries have joined the movement. Surely, the Abraham Accords count as a significant and substantial step in the direction of modernization. In time it will close the chapter on the clash between Islam and capitalism. 

And yet, aside from the clash between Western and Islamic cultures, we are also clashing with China.

Many supposedly serious thinkers consider that it is a reprise of the struggle between democracy and communism. They ignore the simple fact that the extraordinary growth of the Chinese economy, beginning with Deng Xiaoping’s 1978 reforms, was based on capitalism. If you think that the Communist Party has been running China you will find yourself in the unenviable position of granting it credit for the most extraordinary economic expansion and poverty reduction in human history. And you do not want to do that, do you?

And yet, of late, Chinese President Xi Jinping seems to be backtracking on Deng’s reforms, making himself the ultimate imperial authority. At the least, he wants to immunize his country from nefarious Western influence.

Many people believe that China is sabotaging itself by returning to a more Communistic culture. Others believe this to be wishful thinking.

In any event, we are now fighting a new Cold War against China. We are placing tariffs and sanctions on Chinese companies. We are denouncing China as a human rights abuser on an hourly basis.

We think that it makes us tough and strong-- though feckless Joe Biden makes it more theatre than reality.

Besides, our tough guy chorus has yet to figure out that talking trash about China provokes a counter-reaction. The people who ran down their own students with tanks are not likely to sit back and take it. They might want to be more subtle in their reaction, but aside from their efforts to onshore their own manufacturing, they are also implementing a new policy around rare earth minerals--- essential to the production of high tech gizmos.

But, is the West really the last bastion of democracy?  One understands that those who whine about our wondrous democracy are subliminally suggesting that we ought to vote for the Democratic Party candidates. 

In addition, many people now believe that the final battle will be between democracy and authoritarianism. They see certain unsavory countries forming an alliance to combat the influence of Western democracies. Iran, Russia and Japan are now allied as a counterweight to American and Western European influence.

And yet, is theirs an alliance of convenience? Or is there more to it?

Joel Kotkin offered a useful analysis in the London Telegraph a few days ago.

While we are tormenting ourselves about social justice and anti-racism training, China is expanding its influence around the world. I trust that you noticed. Kotkin wrote:

The new wider war includes attempts by great powers, notably China, to secure natural resources by securing alliances with authoritarian regimes around the world. In exchange, China provides goods, including military items, to authoritarian regimes in Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. 

This de-facto alliance, a modern version of the World War Two “pact of steel”, is truly global in scope. It extends from Ukraine to the shutting off of the Red Sea by Yemen’s Houthis, and even Venezuelan plans to conquer much of oil-rich Guyana. 

One notes with chagrin that China is also working to undermine the dollar as the world reserve currency. Did it not sign contracts with Brazil and Saudi Arabia to do business in Chinese currency?

I emphasize the point because we are cocky about having avoided recession last year. Someone should have noticed that we avoided recession by printing money, a practice that will no longer be possible if the dollar ceases to be the international medium of exchange.

Kotkin believes that the Western democracies are led by weak people, like Joe Biden, and especially Antony Blinken. 

One might say that they represent the triumph of the feminine, while our enemies are trying to manifest masculine virtues. Why else do you think that these countries reject Western decadence?

The West’s leaders, as in the 1930s, seem more interested in diplomatic maneuvering than confronting a real and present danger. They view the appeasement of Iran as pragmatic, but the creation of a trade deal with Great Britain as marginal. It’s not far from the mark to describe US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, as Tablet recently did, as “Neville Chamberlain with an iPad.”

As for how we can compete effectively against the Middle Kingdom, Kotkin argues that we need a strong industrial base, military preparedness and high morale. 

As of now, we have none of the above.

The Biden administration is warring against the weather. The result is, manufacturing is going east.

Right now, the West seems determined to weaken its manufacturing industries, for example through electric vehicle mandates which will help Beijing. The Middle Kingdom retains an almost monopoly position on the EV battery supply chain – 80 per cent of the world’s raw material refining, 77 per cent of the world’s cell capacity and 60 per cent of the world’s component manufacturing. They produce more than four times the batteries as the United States, and control critical raw materials required for manufacture. China is also cultivating emerging vassal states in Africa and Central Asia as well as Latin America to meet their resource demand.

Kotkin adds:

Since the 1960s, the US and the EU have seen their share of value-added manufacturing drop from 65 per cent to barely half that today. Climate policies are a gift that keeps giving as Westerners struggle with unreliable renewables, while China goes on a coal-plant building spree and emits more greenhouse gases than all developed countries put together.    

Militarily, the West, and especially Western Europe, is in decline:

Europe’s militaries are pathetic and becoming even more so. The UK, with Europe’s strongest military, has only 150 tanks while Germany has enough ammunition for two days of battle. Even the US is having trouble keeping its allies supplied. A recent study by Cynthia Cook of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies found that even before the Hamas attack, the need to supply Ukraine with weapons “triggered concerns as to whether there are sufficient residual inventories for training and to execute war plans”. 

Kotkin continues to emphasize our cultural degradation:

Many young people in Europe and America have been primed, sometimes from grade school, to follow the essentially anti-Western “oppressor” and “colonialist” narrative. A  recent report from the Future of Democracy at the University of Cambridge, found support for democracy in the West falling most among 18–34-year-olds.  

Children go off to school, and eventually to college, in order to have their patriotism wrung out of them. They lose their confidence and their competitive spirit. Don’t get overly confident about our ability to meet the current challenge and to prevail in the current chapter of the clash of civilization.